DEMILADE ADENIYI writes that the odds seems against Governor Gboyega Oyetola’s opponents in the run up to the Osun State Governorship election which comes up on Saturday. But will the electorates still favour the incumbent or will their votes go to any of his 14 opponents, especially the PDP and its flagbearer, who seems bent on wrestling it from his hands this time?
In barely 24 hours from now, Osun State would be taking another walk with destiny as the people decides who among the 14 candidates jostling for their attention would be the governor, and pilot the affairs of the state for the next four years.
Since the Appeal Court sacked the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) led Olagunsoye Oyinlola administration in 2010, and the rein of power gravitated to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and its flag bearer Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola, Osun State governorship election, had suddenly shot higher in prominence as the dominant parties, use it to shadow-box, and to gauge the level of their preparedness for the main election cycle.
Aregbesola, who stormed Osun with a bravado uncommon in the politics of the Southwest was able to wrest and sustain power in the state, between 2010 – 2014, and 2014-2018, when his party transitioned into the All Progressives Congress (APC), and though, his performance was largely rated at below par on all fronts of human capital index, the party had a herculean task achieving success in the state.
In an election reputed by international observers as fraught with irregularities, the party went into a battle of its life, with the ruling party throwing all it had into the ring to ensure that victory was recorded for the party through a rough path strewn by a runoff election.
Though on a large scale, Aregbesola’s successor Gboyega Oyetola, seemed to have performed better on all parameters of governance especially in a basically public sector driven state like Osun, a development which earned him the confidence of the masses who were basically civil servants, it is very apparent that this election, more than any is at the heart of the coming general election in February 2023.
It is for this reason that not for non performance, but other optics, Oyetola, 67, who is the incumbent governor of the state, haven been elected in 2018, is in a battle for his life and that of his party in the election which comes up on Saturday.
His emergence as the party’s flagbearer itself was symptomatic of the battle he was to face throughout as he struggle to earn a barge of honour from the Osun electorates. For inexplicable reasons, Oyetola early in the life of the administration parted ways with his predecessor, whose eight years, could arguably be regarded as a waste in the state.
Despite serving as the Secretary to the Government for all of the eight years under Aregbesola, Oyetola did not waste much time in upturning most of his predecessor’s policies and programmes, even as he reverted the inimical and devilish wage burden of the payment of quarter salaries to all public workers, and the no pay whatsoever to pensioners in the state by his predecessor.
From the first month, Oyetola reverted to payment of full salaries for all civil servants even as pensioners were given their entitlement as at when due. He also instituted free meals and grants for the indigents, especially the old citizens of the state.
Oyetola also set aside the controversial policy on education returning all schools to their status quo ante, putting an end to the unending debacle and controversies that enveloped the state for much of the Aregbesola years in power.
Matters however came to an end when Aregbesola formally parted ways with the governor and threw his support for another chieftain of the party, Gbenga Adeoti, who was roundly defeated at the party primaries, paving the way for Oyetola’s emergence as the party’s standard bearer at the polls.
In the height of the tiff, Aregbesola parted ways with his benefactor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who he felt might be shadow boxing him through his successor.
Instructively, those who know the intricacies of the Aregbesola-Oyetola “political war” wont to agree that despite his strong mobilizing potentials, Aregbesola seemed to be holding the wrong of the stick in the Osun political game.
An APC chieftain who does not want to be mentioned said, Aregbesola’s political image suffered very badly in the faceoff with his successor, and his aggression towards Asiwaju Tinubu among political circles was a major miscalculation that can sink his political relevance, not only in Osun, but in the emerging politics of the Southwest zone forever.
In any case, Aregbesola has vowed he and his followers would not be supporting Oyetola’s bid for a revalidation of his mandate at the polls. Though even as at now, he is yet to formally disclose where the pendulum should swing, talks are that he is still in talks with the Labour and the PDP on a working relationship that would be mutually beneficial to both parties.
Pundits agreed that Oyetola is going into this election with a strong fidelity. Virtually all the candidates that wrestling against him are struggling to puncture his achievements, which at the debates offered by the Arise Television and the Channels Television editorial team Oyetola emerged very strong, with his Ileri Oluwa mantra.
“Oyetola is going into the 2022 election stronger and better,” was the way former Lagos State Information and Strategy Commissioner Kehinde Bamigbetan summed up the Oyetola campaigns as he goes into the pools.
According to Bamigbetan, the Osun State governor has not done badly in the last three and a half years despite the impact of COVID-19, and its attendant impact.
According to him, from health, to education – and the school feeding, to road infrastructure, and job creation, the Oyetola administration has kept faith with the people, especially the poor, who he has given a lease of life and brought smile back to the faces of many, who have lost hope in governance.
Confronting Oyetola tomorrow as he gets back on the ballot on Saturday, is his main challenger in 2018, Senator Ademola Jackson Adeleke, 62, a candidate of the PDP, who justifiably felt robbed of his mandate in 2018 by the ruling party.
In the build up to the Saturday election, appeared intolerant of the main challenger and opposition, a development which has drawn the flak of discerning waters of political development in the state of the living spring,
APC was said to have denied the PDP approval to use the Osogbo Township Stadium and two other venues proposed by the party for its mega rally, to round up its electioneering activities.
Indeed in the runoff to the election had been strewn in pockets of tension and violence, but largely all candidates in the election could largely said to be peaceful.
At the rally held at an improvised place on Thursday and attended by the PDP Presidential flagbearer Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and his Vice Presidential candidate Gov. Ifeanyi Okowa, who led other party chieftains including the party’s National Chairman Dr Iyorchia Ayu, the party APC’s defeat would send the right signal that end has come to APC’s ruinous rein in power even at the centre.
The PDP top echelon said time has come for the people to dump the APC and restore confidence in the electoral process.
Pointedly all those who registered their presence and spoke at the campaign urged the people to be vigilant and not be allowed themselves to be rigged again.
They promised to stand with their candidate to ensure that the ruling party is defeated at the polls, promising that time has come to “bring back the light”, in accordance of the Imole mantra of its candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke.
Besides Adeleke, there are three other frontline candidates who have proved formidable and ready to take over Oyetola’s job on Saturday.
Prominent among these opponents are; the Labour Party candidate Mr Lasun Yusuf, 61, a former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, elected in 2015 by 203 out of the 357 members in an in-house election. The house was led by former Speaker Yakubu Dogara. Yusuf, who until his carpet crossing was a member of the APC, appeared strong enough to remove the carpet from under the feet of the incumbent.
Another candidate who has shown very bright potential to lead the state is the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate Architect Oyegoke Omigbodun. Omigbodun, 58, an estate surveyor and politician was fr four years the Deputy Chairman SDP in Osun State nd had previously served as the Caretaker Chairman of the then Alliance for Democracy (AD), in his Olorunda Local Government Area in the state.
Not the least of the pack of those who have shown huge capacity to run Osun State, is Mr Akinade Ogunbiyi, an actuarian and Member Chartered Institute of Insurance of London and Chairman/Chief Executive of Mutual Benefits Assurance Plc, a leading indigenous insurance firm. The Ile-Ogbo born industrialist and politician had ran alongside Adeleke in 2018 and again this year and had pitched his tent with the Accord Party, when his chances were blocked.
Also in the race for the Osun Government House are 10 other political parties; these are the AAC which is fielding Segun Awojide, the ADP, fielding Kehinde Atanda, and APM, fielding Lukuman Awoyemi.
There are; Elisha Adebayo (APP), Adedapo Adeleke (BP), Rasaq Salau (NNPP), Samuel Abede (NRM), Ayowole Adedeji (PRP), Ademola Adeseye (YPP), and Olufemi Adesuyi (ZLP). As at Friday, none of these candidates, have not shown any willingness to step down for any party or candidate, which means that the Osogbo electorates would have 15 candidates on the ballots, to choose from.
The electoral umpire have also been talking on the forthcoming election, assuring that the commission is ready and eager to conduct a free, fair and transparent election in Osogbo.
The Commission’s Chairman Mahmood Yakubu said Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would deliver to Nigerians a cleaner, better and more transparent election in Osun.
On Wednesday, all the candidates committed to enthroning peace before, during and after the governorship election in Osun State on Saturday. At a ceremony held in Osogbo, all the candidates signed the Osun Election Peace Accord by the National Peace Committee, led by Bishop Matthew Kukah.
Shedding more light on INEC’s preparedness for the election the National Commissioner for Information and Voter Education, Festus Okoye, said all sensitive electoral materials would be distributed Friday, to all the 337 wards ahead of the Saturday election. On July 12, these electoral materials arrived Osogbo from their Akure office. Okoye said the electoral materials would be transported by members of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), while the Nigerian Police, the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) and other security agencies would be providing security of all materials as well as securing the polling wards in the state.
He said about 15,616 ad-hoc Polling Officers would be mobilised to conduct the election even as he assured that hundreds of electoral monitors, including two international media house and local journalists would be on ground to cover the election.
He said collection of voters cards was extended up till Thursday July 14, 2022 to enable more eligible voters across the 30 local governments in the state participate in the election, all in efforts to ensure that no one was disenfranchised. He said any cards not collected as at Thursday, would be quarantined by the INEC until after the election.
Okoye urged the people of Osun to believe in the electoral umpire to deliver real credible election in Osun State. He appealed to them to troop out in their numbers, even as he said the umpire is committed to electronic transmission of the results adding that anyone who could log into INEC’s election results portal could actually monitor the results as they trickle in from across the over 300 wards in Osun State after the elections.
Where would the pendulum swing? Will the levers of power still stay with Oyetola, or would it swing this time to Ademola, whose family has been battling to hold it again for the third cycle in the fourth republic, since it was held by the maverick late Isiaka Adeleke (Serubawon), Ademola’s senior brother, who won under the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the third republic.
Or will it go the way of Omigbodun or the Deputy Speaker, Yusuf, who described himself as the biggest stakeholder with the biggest interest in the state’s economy or the insurance czar, Ogunbiyi or any of the other minions who have so far held their own and showed capacity?
The answer lies with the people of Osun State and in the power of their thumb, or fore finger.
Like Douye Diri pointed out at the PDP rally on Wednesday, all eyes, including that of the global community are on the people of Osun. They would decide on whose bed they choose to lie in the next four years. Until then, the world, and indeed Nigeria waits.