By Olukayode Oyeleye
LAST FEBRUARY was a watershed in global diplomacy. A lot happened swiftly within days. Tensions rose around the world on the concerns over an imminent armed conflict between two countries. Shuttle diplomacy took place to avert hostilities. Denials, deceptions and defiance became evident even in the midst of confusing signals in what was clearly going to be a different form of post-modern expansionist strategy. On February 24, the worst fears were confirmed as Ukraine was attacked by neighbouring Russia. The array of military hardware on the eastern, northern and western borders of Ukraine was a portent of an intention to overrun it by Russia. The world has changed so rapidly within ten weeks of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Within this period, the world suddenly woke up to the realisation that Russia and Ukraine together supply a third of the world’s wheat. It was feared among diplomats that the consequential disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict could trigger higher food prices all over the world. No fewer than two countries – Peru in South America and Sri Lanka in Asia – have experienced widespread public protests and rampage on the sudden rise in prices of food and specific agricultural inputs, particularly fertiliser, as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine as the latter is reputed as a major fertiliser-exporting country.
The transmission of impacts of the war unleashed on Ukraine by Russia was so swift, widespread and alarming that other countries of the world, particularly those that are mainly food import dependent, have seen an upset in their food system within weeks. Lebanon in the Middle East and Tunisia in North Africa share similar experience of vulnerable economies. The second similarity is their dependence on Ukraine for over 50 per cent of their wheat imports. Lebanon’s and Tunisia’s food security therefore depends significantly on Ukraine. The suspension of port facilities and commercial activities in Ukraine has disrupted the outflow of wheat stock for export since the commencement of the war. Egypt is easily the second largest economy in Africa after Nigeria. By 2021 estimate, Egypt has $394.28 billion in GDP, following after Nigeria’s $514.05 billion, with South Africa coming third at $329.53 billion. For all its prosperity, Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat, importing a total of 12 to 13 million metric tons (MT) every year for a population currently estimated at 105 million people. In Egypt, wheat has become a source of between 35 per cent and 39 per cent of caloric intake per person in the last few years and the country reportedly imports about 62 per cent of total wheat use in the country. Same Egypt has also reportedly ranked as the third largest importer of Brazilian beef, with a 2020 import estimated at 350,000 MT. Africa, with a population of over 1.3 billion people, imports about a quarter of the combined production of wheat from Russia and Ukraine. This is just one food item.
The US is also a major producer and exporter of wheat. Notwithstanding this, the effect of the Ukraine experience was still quickly brought to bear such that anticipation, anxiety and concerns about supply disruptions led to upsurge in wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade by as much as 50 per cent to nearly $13 per bushel. Within a week of the initial invasion of Ukraine, an unprecedented increase in price was recorded such that rise in prices hit the maximum possible allowed by the board. The world was suddenly brought close the experience of about 15 years ago. The global food crisis of 2007 to 2008 apparently did not succeed in teaching the world to diversify sources of cereal imports as the vast majority of cereal imports still come from Russia and Ukraine, with Russia and Ukraine supplying 20 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. Between 2018 and 2020, nearly 50 per cent of Africa’s imported wheat came from the two countries, with 32 per cent of wheat worth $3.7 billion was imported from Russia while 12 per cent of wheat worth $1.4 billion of wheat imported was from Ukraine. In Africa, between 2010 and 2011, Africa’s food import had hit $40bn. Food production remained largely in the informal sector, a probable explanation for any inaccuracy in figures often quoted about the continent’s annual food imports. While there were increases in food importation in some countries, there were concurrent increases in local production in some others. The overall cases of those huge importers tended to have obscured those that import less. Although the import bill of roughly $40 billion was considered worrisome, projections that food import bill in Africa is expected to reach $110 billion by 2025 is considered, scary, unlikely and theoretical. A comparative yearly increase in agricultural growth in Africa at 4 per cent (inflation adjusted) is considered higher than the world average at 2.7 per cent, according to a report credited to Thomas Jayne, a professor of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics at Michigan State University (MSU) in the US.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has disclosed that Africa imported about 85 per cent of its food – amounting to $35 billion – within a period of 2016 to 2018 from outside the continent. Although a Brookings Institution’s estimation of $43 billion food import bill in 2019 was worrisome, it did not seem to provide strong basis to agree with the 2025 projections of potential increase in food import bills of up to $110 billion by the African Development Bank (AfDB). Through disaggregation of agricultural trade performance by country and type, perhaps the five countries – accounting for most of the food imports within the continent of Africa – could provide an insight into assumptions of potential food import bill. Major net food importing countries in Africa are either oil exporters or ‘fragile states’ with major governance problems. Examples include Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Nigeria and Somalia. It needs to be stated, however, that those countries that are net exporters of agricultural outputs are not necessarily exporters of staples. They could either be exporters of non-food agricultural products (timber, for example) or non-staple food products such as tea, cocoa, coffee and cotton. The latter, though highly priced and highly demanded in the export market, are more of cash (or revenue generating) crops to the exporters such as Kenya, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Demographics are playing critical roles in Africa’s agricultural exports and imports. Sub-Saharan Africa’s food import and agricultural export seem to be rising in tandem, although the latter is lagging behind the former. While Sub-Saharan Africa imports much more food today than it did two decades ago, it exports much more too, with the region importing roughly $40 billion per year over a period of four years during which it exported roughly $35 billion.
The world is missing Ukraine, and the Western countries are rallying round it with an unprecedented solidarity and support that must have left Russia wondering by now as to whether its invasion of Ukraine was not a tactical and strategic blunder. Billions of dollars have been poured into Ukraine both for military and humanitarian support. Even Germany that was initially reluctant to send arms and ammunitions has eventually capitulated. For good reasons, the United Nations headquarters office has risen in defence of Ukraine as a victim of Russian aggression. The European Union (EU) is mobilising funds and weapons, the US is providing funds, weapons, personnel, logistics and intelligence back-up and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is upbeat about support for Ukraine. Except for the consideration based on concerns of possible escalation, NATO would easily have loved to get directly involved in a head-on fight with Russia. But it was hitherto limited by the fact that Ukraine is yet to be a NATO member. The position of Ukraine is considered of interest. A former member of the old Soviet Union, and occupying a land area of 603,548 km² (square kilometres) or 233,030 square miles, Ukraine’s population is projected to be around 41.46 million in 2022. Either despite or because of its historical background, proximity to Russia, its agro-ecological relevance and its role in production of major staples for export values, Ukraine has become a darling of the West and might soon become a member of the EU as well as of NATO.
By contrast Africa, a continent with a population of 1.3 billion people, has been plagued with terror attacks, hostile invasions, poverty, health predicament and environmental crisis. Although there have been pockets of assistance and support for the various countries within the continent over the years, these have been in trickles, uncoordinated, mismanaged and often not far-reaching enough and with unsustainable impacts. Africa has been through various vicissitudes and challenges that require urgent and all-out support. It requires health facilities, educational facilities, engineering and infrastructural support, development funds, food and security support. While acknowledging that foreign supports have come to Africa in all of these various areas and more over the years, it appears many such supports have not been well targeted or well deployed. Channelling some, particularly monetary support, through governments has helped to promote official corruption as such funds have been mismanaged in the past. Renewed efforts have to be made and a change of targeting strategy has to be adopted so that the assistance could reach the target beneficiaries for sustainable impacts. It is true that the Ukraine crisis was sudden, and with high impact because of its nature as war, the crises in Africa are no less relevant even when they are insidious and slow. The speed and the coordinated manner with which the world rallied in support of Ukraine is notable. Can the world rise in support of Africa’s various crises in the same way? If Ukraine is being supported and defended against the aggressor and to deter any such future acts by any other powerful country against others perceived to be weaker, why not support Africa to overcome the various forces that have bogged down the continent and hindered tremendous growth? Many developed countries depend on Africa for many mineral resources of strategic importance and many natural resources from Africa are influencing the development in the developed world. The future of renewable energy, for instance, depends largely on Africa. If the impact of war against Ukraine was so suddenly and quickly felt across the globe, are the impacts of the predicaments of Africa not palpable enough to warrant coordinated and ambitious efforts to enable Africa overcome its present challenges? The world needs to take note. Africa also needs to have a renewed thinking and be determined to establish its global relevance.
- This piece will be completed next week